Comments on: The impact of the debt markets and AOL’s future – it’s time for new thinking http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/ Investments in and Assistance to Emerging Companies Sat, 11 Jul 2009 03:14:08 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: The impact of the debt markets http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-1232 The impact of the debt markets Fri, 26 Sep 2008 19:10:44 +0000 http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-1232 [...]Valuing AdCo is probably the heart of matter in determining AOL’s future. If you focus on the display ad sales business, solving for a combination of sales within AOL’s own properties[...] [...]Valuing AdCo is probably the heart of matter in determining AOL’s future. If you focus on the display ad sales business, solving for a combination of sales within AOL’s own properties[...]

]]> By: SEO collection links on optimization competitions http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-1207 SEO collection links on optimization competitions Tue, 24 Jun 2008 00:58:10 +0000 http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-1207 I think you have pegged the real lever in any AOL valuation discussion. I think you have pegged the real lever in any AOL valuation discussion.

]]> By: John McKinley http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-356 John McKinley Tue, 21 Aug 2007 02:23:57 +0000 http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-356 WebPerez- I think there were a number of good Day 2 pieces on last week's move by the Fed that provide more color. My view is that this was a pretty tactical step, and you'll still see a tight credit market if the Fed keeps up its talk about a 5.25% "target" Fed funds rate. Capital One's move today to shutter their wholesale mortgage business certainly doesn't help to lower my angst any. WebPerez- I think there were a number of good Day 2 pieces on last week’s move by the Fed that provide more color. My view is that this was a pretty tactical step, and you’ll still see a tight credit market if the Fed keeps up its talk about a 5.25% “target” Fed funds rate. Capital One’s move today to shutter their wholesale mortgage business certainly doesn’t help to lower my angst any.

]]> By: WebPerez http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-350 WebPerez Mon, 20 Aug 2007 04:08:23 +0000 http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-350 Seems like it was yesterday when DCole and I gave you a tour of the Gainesville Data Center when you joined AOL. Time flies. Great analysis. The credit situation has tighten further since your write up and while the Fed has helped with some short term injections, I am not sure how long this will keep things from spinning out of control further. It kinda reminds me of the commercial where the Dam inspectors detect a leak on the guy places a piece of gum on the crack to "fix" the problem. What are you thoughts on the state of the overall market? Take care! Seems like it was yesterday when DCole and I gave you a tour of the Gainesville Data Center when you joined AOL. Time flies.

Great analysis. The credit situation has tighten further since your write up and while the Fed has helped with some short term injections, I am not sure how long this will keep things from spinning out of control further. It kinda reminds me of the commercial where the Dam inspectors detect a leak on the guy places a piece of gum on the crack to “fix” the problem.

What are you thoughts on the state of the overall market?

Take care!

]]> By: ThePadBuyer http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-313 ThePadBuyer Thu, 16 Aug 2007 10:28:19 +0000 http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-313 I would be interested to know how you address the interdependency between AOL's ADco and ACCESSco. A significant majority of AOL’s page views are driven by paid and free AOL customers. Any dissection of the two would have to keep in mind how much of AOL’s AD revenue, and profitability is dependent upon that relationship. Is this a case where splitting the baby is not the wisest move for future cash flow valuation? I would be interested to know how you address the interdependency between AOL’s ADco and ACCESSco. A significant majority of AOL’s page views are driven by paid and free AOL customers. Any dissection of the two would have to keep in mind how much of AOL’s AD revenue, and profitability is dependent upon that relationship. Is this a case where splitting the baby is not the wisest move for future cash flow valuation?

]]> By: ScottB http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-295 ScottB Tue, 14 Aug 2007 15:31:36 +0000 http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-295 Jujst saw the news story on the latest customer satisfaction data for portals/search engines at http://searchengineland.com/070814-081609.php AOL lost ground it couldn't afford. Looks like time is short for AOL to start showing headway. Jujst saw the news story on the latest customer satisfaction data for portals/search engines at http://searchengineland.com/070814-081609.php

AOL lost ground it couldn’t afford.

Looks like time is short for AOL to start showing headway.

]]> By: cableguy666 http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-286 cableguy666 Mon, 13 Aug 2007 14:50:33 +0000 http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-286 I think you have pegged the real lever in any AOL valuation discussion. It will be interesting to see what Google does at the end of their $1B investment. I read before they have an option to get their billion back in 2008, and at this point, unless it is to keep the AOL search business relationship on good terms for the next renewal period, I am sure they have better uses for the funds. I think you have pegged the real lever in any AOL valuation discussion. It will be interesting to see what Google does at the end of their $1B investment. I read before they have an option to get their billion back in 2008, and at this point, unless it is to keep the AOL search business relationship on good terms for the next renewal period, I am sure they have better uses for the funds.

]]> By: schvitzatura http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-258 schvitzatura Fri, 10 Aug 2007 13:51:32 +0000 http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-258 <<I>> Interesting analogy, but how big is the actual "aircraft" and its "configuration" to reach its Vr (takeoff rotation speed)? The headwind of tighter capital markets has made the job for the current captain (Falco), right-seat 1st officer (Grant) that much harder. Newly-arrived flinancial flight navigator Kumar may be taking direct instructions from the ground control @ One Time Warner Center, for the near future on these matters. Possible coup: Consortium of Calacanis/Rose/Scoble/et al snags back Web 1.9-2.5-like portions (Weblogs Inc., rebuilt Netscape portal), plus whatever catches their fancy, at fire-sale prices. kit-bashes them onto Mahalo/Digg and creates a interesting, streamlined, and profitable business from the aft section and vertical stabilizers of AOL PublishCo...jettison AccessCo to a PeoplePC for the commodity dial-up business and contract to AdCo for Tacoda/BT-ed targeted hybridized AdSense-like results. <>

Interesting analogy, but how big is the actual “aircraft” and its “configuration” to reach its Vr (takeoff rotation speed)?

The headwind of tighter capital markets has made the job for the current captain (Falco), right-seat 1st officer (Grant) that much harder.

Newly-arrived flinancial flight navigator Kumar may be taking direct instructions from the ground control @ One Time Warner Center, for the near future on these matters.

Possible coup: Consortium of Calacanis/Rose/Scoble/et al snags back Web 1.9-2.5-like portions (Weblogs Inc., rebuilt Netscape portal), plus whatever catches their fancy, at fire-sale prices. kit-bashes them onto Mahalo/Digg and creates a interesting, streamlined, and profitable business from the aft section and vertical stabilizers of AOL PublishCo…jettison AccessCo to a PeoplePC for the commodity dial-up business and contract to AdCo for Tacoda/BT-ed targeted hybridized AdSense-like results.

]]> By: NYNinja http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-256 NYNinja Fri, 10 Aug 2007 12:15:59 +0000 http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-256 It's been a while since I saw you during your Merrill Lynch days (I am at an asset management firm in the city). Nice to hear your thinking again! We are in for some tough times in the debt markets - not sure what will be a catalyst for change - would agree the era of buyout firms exploiting the efforts of company CFOs to manage their outstanding debt conservatively is over, and I am not sure that's a bad thing. It’s been a while since I saw you during your Merrill Lynch days (I am at an asset management firm in the city). Nice to hear your thinking again!

We are in for some tough times in the debt markets – not sure what will be a catalyst for change – would agree the era of buyout firms exploiting the efforts of company CFOs to manage their outstanding debt conservatively is over, and I am not sure that’s a bad thing.

]]> By: cavalierrusticano http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-254 cavalierrusticano Fri, 10 Aug 2007 02:32:22 +0000 http://greatfallsventures.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/the-impact-of-the-debt-markets-and-aols-future-its-time-for-new-thinking/#comment-254 Not saying it's a viable path, but they have been using the accessCo free cash to beef up the adCo collection of assets right? yeah it will take time they don't have... Another piece of excellent analysis, thanks John. I own CHTR, which was hurt even more directly by the repricing of all debts... Not saying it’s a viable path, but they have been using the accessCo free cash to beef up the adCo collection of assets right? yeah it will take time they don’t have…

Another piece of excellent analysis, thanks John.

I own CHTR, which was hurt even more directly by the repricing of all debts…

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